Are real estate prices stickier in Central America?
We’ve just started a new round of data collection for 2009 covering Nicaragua, Belize, Panama and Costa Rica. When we have this collected, we’ll present a trend analysis – showing how prices have changed since 2008.
Kirk Hankla, owner of International City Mortgage, on a recent trip to Nicaragua, put forward the view that we would find property prices in Central America to be stickier on the downside than in the US (or other more mature markets).
The argument for stickier property prices
The argument being that people who buy in Central America are typically making cash purchases and are usually not effected to the point of having to liquidate assets in order to meet demands. This characteristic, of not being highly leveraged, generally speaking, is how they conduct their lives in their home country as well.
Even if they were looking for financing, they would be hard pressed to find the kind of financing products commonly available in the US. This is because Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Belize and, albeit to a lesser extent, Panama do not have capital markets developed for the selling of mortgage backed debt instruments.
So due to the lack of financing, there is no debt load and the fact that property taxes are low across the region, the buyers are not backed up against a wall to meet a monthly debt service which has required that they liquidate. The result being that prices are stickier on the downside.
Regional variances will exist
We’ll see if the numbers bear this out, and we’ll dig into the regional variances. Some real estate areas, such as Panama City for example, have seen significant levels of financed purchases. And some heavily leveraged large scale projects have suspended operations – the St Regis project in Costa Rica in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse was a case in point.
But regionally we’re not seeing the waves of foreclosures that have swept across the US. There are of course motivated buyers who are lowering their prices, some of whom are having their hand forced by a debt burden in their home country that must be satisfied. But that may not be enough to add up to the heavy across-the-board price falls we’ve seen in the US.
We’d love to hear your views. Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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